What Wil The Conservative's Majority Be Reduced To In Newark?

[Gromit]

It is currently 16,152.

[jeffa]

13,196.

[Gromit]

My guess 5,000

[DTCwordfan]

Yes because the turnout will be lower than the election....

[BlueToffee]

Does the nearest get a prize Gromit?

[mikey4444]

The exit Poll on the Beeb tonight will soon tell you. It should be known soon after the Polls have closed.

I am wary of predictions here but this is what happened in 2010 ::

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Huge majority for the Tories, and as the non-Tory vote was split pretty-well 50/50 between Labour and the LibDems, I can see the Tories winning here again. But the ghastly ( I will be making no apologies for the phrase) UKIP is the wild card, hardly featuring at all back in 2010.

A Tory win I think but the numbers will be hard to predict.

[Gromit]

Mikey4444

UKiP will be second but quite a way behind the Conservatives. Vindicating Farage's decision not to stand.

[Gromit]

Based on a guessed turnout of 40,000, I reckon:

1 .Conservative 16,500
2. UKiP 11,500
3. Labour 9,000
4. LibDem 2,000
5. Others 1,000

[ToraToraTora]

The proportion of the vote will remain roughly the same the actual number will be lower because of the turnout. I'm more interested in how Mikeys Marxists do, that will speak volumes about Ed's progress, Lib Dems will probably lose their deposit.

[Gromit]

This is not a good seat for Labour.
They were second at the general election but I think UKiP will beat them today. I image Labour's proportion of the votes will be up a little, but the number of votes will be less because 10,000 few people will vote.

The result will not really tell us much about Labour's progress (or lack of it).

[ToraToraTora]

that does sound a teensy weensy bit like getting your excuses out in advance gromit!

[Gromit]

Tora,
It has a 16,000 Conservative majority so it is a very solid Tory area. A good result to Labour will be an increase in their share of the vote. Labour aren't going to gain at the expense of the Conservatives, Labour will get some LibDem voters if they bother to come out. A bad result for Labour will be if their share goes down from UKiP taking votes from them too. I still maintain that UKiP don't really take votes from Labour, but this might be a test of that.

[jno]

Tories lose 8%, Ukip gain 22%, Lab down 4,5%, Lib Dems down 17.4%. Miced message but not bad for Tories.

[Fibonacci]

Full result
Robert Jenrick (Con) 17,431 (45.03%, -8.82%)
Roger Helmer (UKIP) 10,028 (25.91%, +22.09%)
Michael Payne (Lab) 6,842 (17.68%, -4.65%)
Paul Baggaley (Ind) 1,891 (4.89%)
David Kirwan (Green) 1,057 (2.73%)
David Watts (LD) 1,004 (2.59%, -17.41%)
Nick The Flying Brick (Loony) 168 (0.43%)
Andy Hayes (Ind) 117 (0.30%)
David Bishop (BP Elvis) 87 (0.22%)
Dick Rodgers (Stop Banks) 64 (0.17%)
Lee Woods (Pat Soc) 18 (0.05%)

Con majority 7,403 (19.13%)
15.46% swing Con to UKIP
Electorate 73,486; Turnout 38,707 (52.67%, -18.69%)

[ichkeria]

With results like that, talk of a 4-party system seems somewhat extravagant, unless the LibDems make a dramatic breakthrough :-)

[Gromit]

The turnout was 38,707

1, Conservative 17,431 (45.03%, -8.82%)

2. UKIP) 10,028 (25.91%, +22.09%)

3, Lab) 6,842 (17.68%, -4.89%

6. LD) 1,004 (2.59%, -17.41%)

-------------

1. A good result for the Conservatives. The majority though deminished, is a lot bigger than most expected.

2. A very good result for UKiP. Not as good as Eastleigh but a huge improvement on 2010.

3. Not a good result. Their share of the vote has gone down, which shouldn't happen to an opposition party close to a general election. And it does look like UKiP did indeed take votes off of them.

6. The big losers of this election. Pushed to 6th, lost deposit.

[ichkeria]

I think its "quite a good" result for the Tories, a disappointing one for UKIP, a frustrating one for Labour.
A nightmare for the LibDems though.

This was always going to be Tories v Flavour of the Month UKIP. It probably shows that UKIP are never going to win a seat in the Commons if they can't even come all that close here.

[Gromit]

To be fair to UKiP, they were 4th in 2010 with less than 2,000 votes. The Conservatives polled 27,000. It was asking a lot to overturn that.

[ToraToraTora]

GE within a year, Bye election, I'd have expected Red Ed to do better. Yes It's a Tory seat but the opposition measure their progress in how much they can dent it. Looks weird but based on the figures UKIP picked up a lot from LD. However look deeper and I think LDs went for Tory + Labour and some of Con/Lab jumped ship to UKIP, I cannot imagine a LD voting UKIP, it would sour their lentil porridge!

[Hopkirk]

Oh come on, it wasn't a bad night for the Lib Dems.

They were worried they would come behind the Bus Pass Elvis party, but they beat them convincingly.

[ToraToraTora]

yeah but nick the flying brick got close!