Yougov Now Says Hung Parliament

[scooping]

Blimey

[sp1814]

jim360

Some very interesting points you've raised there. You clearly know what you're talking about.

Very refreshing to hear from someone with a bit of analytical skills on here.

[sunny-dave]

I love numbers and statistics - sample sizes and confidence (aka margin of error) in these polls are the absolutely crucial bits of info that you only see by going to the source data.

The tabloids (and indeed the heavies) are always after an eye-catching headline - the caveats are usually conspicuous only by their absence, or printed in 6pt at the bottom of page 94 ...

[ladybirder]

I do the YouGov surveys and everyone for the last couple of weeks that I've done has asked me will I vote, who for, did I vote at the last election and will I definitely be voting next week. I tell the truth but does everyone I wonder.

[Mamyalynne]

I do them too and always answer the truth , a very rare 'don't know' but otherwise I enjoy doing them.


I can't see why anyone would lie, but then I guess some may do.

[jim360]

"...can you realise, please, that most of us don't think solely scientifically? I'm sure stats. influence you- but not people like me for instance..."

I do realise that. But this situation is a problem when stats are everywhere and play -- or should play -- a big part in trying to understand how the world works. So it's no use trying to ignore them, really. People do all the same, but they shouldn't. And it seems important to try and communicate this basic truth as often, and as loudly and clearly, as possible. I'm not sure I've succeeded in this thread, but it's better to try all the same.

A hung parliament is probably the worst of all possible outcomes. Still, it would be funny for a bit. Theresa May calls an election seeking for a "strong and stable" platform -- that she already had -- and the electorate responds by whipping it out from under her feet! Hilarious. For a few minutes -- before we have to go through the whole cycle again...

[agchristie]

It's like facing the gallows. One minute there's a strong and stable platform and the next is a trapdoor waiting to be pulled!

[naomi24]

If people, swayed by pre-election rhetoric and spin, fail to consider what a vote against the Conservatives could mean for this country, the trap door will be well and truly pulled, and we’ll all be left dangling helplessly.

[dannyk13]

According to the ITN 10 o'clock news last night Yougov was predicting a hung parliament but 14 other polls all put the Tories ahead,

[jim360]

Even in the YouGov poll the Tories are ahead by 3 points. But that's not (necessarily) enough to return a majority.

[Togo]

Yougov poll is a load of tripe. Tiny sample size bound to throw out bizarre predictions. It is even predicting that a 9,000 majority for the Conservatives will be turned over in East Devon. Haha, perhaps they think that they are steering instead of following. Dream on luvvies.

[jim360]

The sample size for this poll was about 50,000 -- which is about 50 times larger than most other polls.

[Togo]

The co-founder of Yougov, Stephan Shakespeare, claimed the findings were conducted using the most sophisticated analysis ever deployed, based on "multilevel regression and post stratification analysis". Predicting how voters will switch between parties and how likely they are to vote. Data from 7,000 voters is then extrapolated across the UK's 650 constituencies. Haha load of blocks then. Not only the "result" but the gobbledegook, self justifying, codswallop trotted out in an attempt to give some worth to the farce. Haha.

[CrapAtCryptics]

When has any recent poll ever come close to predicting the real result.

[jim360]

Are you actually going to study the techniques used, or just dismiss them because you have no idea what they are talking about and can't be bothered to do any research into it?

[naomi24]

Not just me then. ;o)

[New Judge]

Yes the bookies are offering 7/2 against a hung Parliament. I particularly like the very generous 1000/1 against Nigel Farage being the Prime Minister after the election (considering he is not standing to be elected as an MP) and the even more generous 2000/1 against the SNP holding the most seats after the election (considering they are only contesting 59 seats).

[Togo]

Latest poll predictions.
346 Cons.
221 Lab.
51 SNP.
18 N Irl.
10 Lib Dem.
3 Plaid.
1 Green.

346 Cons.....304 Others. Majority of 42.

[jim360]

Which poll?

[mikey4444]

Electoral Calculus has this :::

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

I have been watching this for 7 days now, and the rise of Labour and the fall of the Tories has been steady for all that time.

As I have said previously, May is still going to win next week, and I don't give much credence to any reports of a hung parliament. But Labour and Corbyn looks as if they will perform miles better than anyone suggested 4 weeks ago, and every time May makes personal attacks on Corbyn, the support for Labour just goes up.

The Tory Party is now the Nasty Party once again, and we all know who coined that phrase don't we !

....................( a clue, it wasn't Jeremy Corbyn )