Crosswords1 min ago
Who Can Still Say That Uncontrolled Immigration Isn't Responsible For A Massive Increase In Crime?
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Yes, never let actual data get in the way of debate, huh?
It's worth noting that the Crime Survey has been going on for ages now, that it's not the same as police force recording data, and that even if you hold that the figures are wrong (and they probably are at least somewhat of an underreporting), then it's safe to assume that they've been consistently wrong. In which case the general long-term trend of falling crime still holds.
As to the possibility of agendas -- who exactly on this thread has an agenda, if it isn't the people trying to link immigration with crime based on what is manifestly a selection bias? If you pick all the crimes committed by immigrants and then focus on those then of course you're going to see a link with immigration because that's what you started with. If, on the other hand, you record all crimes across the country for a few decades, then it's easier to see where the actual trends lie.
Statistics are open to abuse, it is true. But it's no excuse to ignore them when it's convenient for you to do so. The simple fact is that crime rates have tended to fall for some time now.
It's worth noting that the Crime Survey has been going on for ages now, that it's not the same as police force recording data, and that even if you hold that the figures are wrong (and they probably are at least somewhat of an underreporting), then it's safe to assume that they've been consistently wrong. In which case the general long-term trend of falling crime still holds.
As to the possibility of agendas -- who exactly on this thread has an agenda, if it isn't the people trying to link immigration with crime based on what is manifestly a selection bias? If you pick all the crimes committed by immigrants and then focus on those then of course you're going to see a link with immigration because that's what you started with. If, on the other hand, you record all crimes across the country for a few decades, then it's easier to see where the actual trends lie.
Statistics are open to abuse, it is true. But it's no excuse to ignore them when it's convenient for you to do so. The simple fact is that crime rates have tended to fall for some time now.
If ten years ago there were twenty-seven car thefts in Newham, two rapes and one murder, and last year there were twenty-two car thefts, three rapes and two murders then the crime rate has been reduced by a massive 10%.
Let's ask, instead of a statistician's question, a normal human being's question: is today's Newham a better or worse place to live than it was ten years ago?
Let's ask, instead of a statistician's question, a normal human being's question: is today's Newham a better or worse place to live than it was ten years ago?
Statisticians are, believe it or not, normal human beings. Even if you focus on one type of crime, the murder rate has been relatively stable for a long time*, and was even dropping until about 2016. Which just makes the same point again: there's no link between increased crime rates and increased immigration.
*Well, strictly it was on a slight upwards trend until about 2000, before falling again, but the way homicides are recorded can affect the data. All of Harold Shipman's victims are officially counted in the 2003 data.
*Well, strictly it was on a slight upwards trend until about 2000, before falling again, but the way homicides are recorded can affect the data. All of Harold Shipman's victims are officially counted in the 2003 data.
//Do we have uncontrolled immigration for Albanians?//
We might as well have. It seems there are about 20,000 of them (officially) here. Probably a lot more that we know nothing of. Although accounting for only about 0.03% of the population it is estimated that they account for more than 1% of organised crime. They also seem to pop back after deportation with relative impunity:
https:/
https:/
We might as well have. It seems there are about 20,000 of them (officially) here. Probably a lot more that we know nothing of. Although accounting for only about 0.03% of the population it is estimated that they account for more than 1% of organised crime. They also seem to pop back after deportation with relative impunity:
https:/
https:/
17.45,"my father was serving in 1938", what age are you then Retro ?. Also What are drapes and brothel Creepers ? Please
winklepickers were briefly back in fashion - 2016?
and I admired one young man's (w/p) and HE ssaid
My Dad say dat, what dat long word again?
and I thought - o god....
//18.28, TOGO, I Went to Stoke on Trent ,once , and only once, never again , what a S/H, Never mind TOGO , Just DON'T GO//
in a slightly more literary fashion
(i.e. far too posh and completely incomprehensible to the usual suspects like V-e)
I went to Philadelphia once but it was closed .... W E Fields
[yeah yeah I know - what does Philadelphia have to do wiv Stoke unless the answer is cheese]
winklepickers were briefly back in fashion - 2016?
and I admired one young man's (w/p) and HE ssaid
My Dad say dat, what dat long word again?
and I thought - o god....
//18.28, TOGO, I Went to Stoke on Trent ,once , and only once, never again , what a S/H, Never mind TOGO , Just DON'T GO//
in a slightly more literary fashion
(i.e. far too posh and completely incomprehensible to the usual suspects like V-e)
I went to Philadelphia once but it was closed .... W E Fields
[yeah yeah I know - what does Philadelphia have to do wiv Stoke unless the answer is cheese]
//Statisticians are, believe it or not, normal human beings//
Well, I've spent thirty years of my working life with statisticians, Jim, seeing as how it's the stats guys who specify how you collect and analyse market research data. I'm the gofer who writes the software. "Normal" is stretching it a bit, but most of those I've worked with are very bright and great fun.
One of them introduced me to the Listener. Even gave me a previous addition of Chambers. Not the first time, may I say, because one of my window cleaning customers had given me an earlier obsolete edition in my twenties when she found out that I, like her husband, were fond of the four times a year kinky Observer crosswords (early Azed).
For several years I, David Vine the stats bloke and another Listener addict from my company's sales team (pretentiously calling themselves "Client Service Executives") , both of whom had become friends of my wife and me, would all traipse off to the annual Times Crossword championship.
Mixed with the cream of crossword society: the late Mike Rich (Ploutos), his occasional collaborator Dimitry (jointly RicShaw) and the legend which is John Green of St Albans.
Well, I've spent thirty years of my working life with statisticians, Jim, seeing as how it's the stats guys who specify how you collect and analyse market research data. I'm the gofer who writes the software. "Normal" is stretching it a bit, but most of those I've worked with are very bright and great fun.
One of them introduced me to the Listener. Even gave me a previous addition of Chambers. Not the first time, may I say, because one of my window cleaning customers had given me an earlier obsolete edition in my twenties when she found out that I, like her husband, were fond of the four times a year kinky Observer crosswords (early Azed).
For several years I, David Vine the stats bloke and another Listener addict from my company's sales team (pretentiously calling themselves "Client Service Executives") , both of whom had become friends of my wife and me, would all traipse off to the annual Times Crossword championship.
Mixed with the cream of crossword society: the late Mike Rich (Ploutos), his occasional collaborator Dimitry (jointly RicShaw) and the legend which is John Green of St Albans.
It has been known for statistics to be correct. But there's a wider point here: how do you *think* we should measure the world, if not by gathering and then analysing data? It's certainly more effective than trusting anyone's gut instinct, which is after all going to be even more susceptible to flaws, and flaws that aren't even acknowledged very often at that. And, again, it *still* ignores the basic flaw in any point you can make attacking the statistical trend, which will show up regardless of any systematic errors.
In this case I'm using the most official and regulated statistical source possible, the ONS. That's more reliable than police records, more reliable than newspapers, and more reliable than people who are clearly setting out to try and prove that immigration is bad for the UK whether or not the evidence supports it.
In this case I'm using the most official and regulated statistical source possible, the ONS. That's more reliable than police records, more reliable than newspapers, and more reliable than people who are clearly setting out to try and prove that immigration is bad for the UK whether or not the evidence supports it.
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